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| Journal Article | PUBDB-2024-07193 |
2025
Springer
Heidelberg
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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1007/JHEP08(2025)098 doi:10.3204/PUBDB-2024-07193
Report No.: DESY-19-021; arXiv:2411.18606
Abstract: We develop a new approach to estimate the uncertainty due to missing higherorders in perturbative predictions (the perturbative ``theory uncertainty''),which overcomes many inherent limitations of the currently prevalent methodsbased on varying unphysical renormalization scales. In our approach, the trueunderlying sources of the theory uncertainty, namely the missing higher-orderterms, are identified and parameterized in terms of mutually independent theorynuisance parameters (TNPs). The TNPs are true parameters of the calculation,i.e., they have a well-defined true value that is not or only imprecisely known.This approach affords the theory uncertainty all benefits of a truly parametricuncertainty: It provides correct correlations and allows for consistent errorpropagation and combination. Furthermore, the TNPs can be profiled in fits,allowing the data to reduce the theory uncertainties. On the theory side, itallows maximally exploiting all available higher-order information to reduce thetheory uncertainty, such as partial higher-order results or any nontrivialknowledge of the higher-order or all-order structure.We first discuss the method in general as it can be applied across the board ofperturbative calculations, including the various choices it requires andcorresponding strategies for making them. As a concrete application, we then discuss theresummed transverse momentum ($q_T$) spectrum in Drell-Yan production, and howTNP-based uncertainties can correctly capture the correlations across the $q_T$spectrum and between $Z$ and $W$ production. This application is the basis ofthe theory model enabling the recent precise measurement of the $W$-boson massby the CMS experiment. In a forthcoming paper, we use it to study the theoryuncertainties in extracting the strong coupling constant $\alpha_s$ from the $Z$$q_T$ spectrum.
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Preprint
Beyond Scale Variations: Perturbative Theory Uncertainties from Nuisance Parameters
[10.3204/PUBDB-2024-07190]
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