An extensive survey of the estimation of uncertainties from missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

Bagnaschi, Emanuele; Guffanti, Alberto; Cacciari, Matteo; Jenniches, Laura

doi:10.1007/JHEP02(2015)133

Report/Journal Article

PUBDB-2016-00262

An extensive survey of the estimation of uncertainties from missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

Bagnaschi, E. (Corresponding author)DESY* ; Cacciari, M. ; Guffanti, A. ; Jenniches, L.

2015
Springer Berlin

Journal of high energy physics 2015(2), 133 (2015) [10.1007/JHEP02(2015)133]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1007/JHEP02(2015)133

Report No.: arXiv:1409.5036

Abstract: We consider two approaches to estimate and characterise the theoretical uncertainties stemming from the missing higher orders in perturbative calculations in Quantum Chromodynamics: the traditional one based on renormalisation and factorisation scale variation, and the Bayesian framework proposed by Cacciari and Houdeau. We estimate uncertainties with these two methods for a comprehensive set of more than thirty different observables computed in perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics, and we discuss their performance in properly estimating the size of the higher order terms that are known. We find that scale variation with the conventional choice of varying scales within a factor of two of a central scale gives uncertainty intervals that tend to be somewhat too small to be interpretable as 68% confidence-level-heuristic ones. We propose a modified version of the Bayesian approach of Cacciari and Houdeau which performs well for non-hadronic observables and, after an appropriate choice of the relevant expansion parameter for the perturbative series, for hadronic ones too.

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