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@ARTICLE{Drnevich:642844,
author = {Drnevich, Matthew and Jiggins, Stephen and Katzy, Judith
and Cranmer, Kyle},
title = {{N}eural quasiprobabilistic likelihood ratio estimation
with negatively weighted data},
journal = {Machine learning: science and technology},
volume = {6},
number = {4},
issn = {2632-2153},
address = {Bristol},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
reportid = {PUBDB-2025-05650},
pages = {045023 -},
year = {2025},
abstract = {MLST-IOPscience-Header.pngPurpose-Led Publishing logo.Part
of the Machine Learning Series logo.Paper • The following
article is Open accessNeural quasiprobabilistic likelihood
ratio estimation with negatively weighted dataMatthew
Drnevich, Stephen Jiggins*, Judith Katzy and Kyle
CranmerPublished 28 October 2025 • © 2025 The Author(s).
Published by IOP Publishing LtdMachine Learning: Science and
Technology, Volume 6, Number 4Focus on ML and the Physical
SciencesCitation Matthew Drnevich et al 2025 Mach. Learn.:
Sci. Technol. 6 045023DOI 10.1088/2632-2153/ae0defDownload
Article PDFArticle metrics172 Total downloads11 citation on
Dimensions.SubmitSubmit to this JournalShare this
articleAbstractMotivated by real-world situations found in
high energy particle physics, we consider a generalization
of the likelihood-ratio estimation task to a
quasiprobabilistic setting where probability densities can
be negative, and to importance sampling where the importance
weights can be negative. The presence of negative densities
and negative weights, pose an array of challenges to
traditional neural likelihood ratio (LR) estimation methods.
We address these challenges by introducing a novel loss
function. In addition, we introduce a new model architecture
based on the decomposition of a LR using signed mixture
models, providing a second strategy for overcoming these
challenges. Finally, we demonstrate our approach on a
pedagogical example and a real-world example from particle
physics.},
cin = {ATLAS},
ddc = {621.3},
cid = {I:(DE-H253)ATLAS-20120731},
pnm = {611 - Fundamental Particles and Forces (POF4-611)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-611},
experiment = {EXP:(DE-H253)LHC-Exp-ATLAS-20150101},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
doi = {10.1088/2632-2153/ae0def},
url = {https://bib-pubdb1.desy.de/record/642844},
}