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@INPROCEEDINGS{Bagnaschi:220626,
      author       = {Bagnaschi, Emanuele},
      title        = {{E}stimation of uncertainties from missing higher orders in
                      perturbative calculations},
      reportid     = {PUBDB-2015-02318, DESY-15-084. arXiv:1505.08029},
      pages        = {4},
      year         = {2015},
      abstract     = {In this proceeding we present the results of our recent
                      study (hep-ph/1409.5036) of the statistical performances of
                      two different approaches, Scale Variation (SV) and the
                      Bayesian model of Cacciari and Houdeau
                      (CH)(hep-ph/1105.5152) (which we also extend to observables
                      with initial state hadrons), to the estimation of Missing
                      Higher-Order Uncertainties (MHOUs)(hep-ph/1307.1843) in
                      perturbation theory. The behavior of the models is
                      determined by analyzing, on a wide set of observables, how
                      the MHOU intervals they produce are successful in predicting
                      the next orders. We observe that the Bayesian model behaves
                      consistently, producing intervals at $68\\%$ Degree of
                      Belief (DoB) comparable with the scale variation intervals
                      with a rescaling factor $r$ larger than $2$ and closer to
                      $4$. Concerning SV, our analysis allows the derivation of a
                      heuristic Confidence Level (CL) for the intervals. We find
                      that assigning a CL of $68\\%$ to the intervals obtained
                      with the conventional choice of varying the scales within a
                      factor of two with respect to the central scale could
                      potentially lead to an underestimation of the uncertainties
                      in the case of observables with initial state hadrons.},
      month         = {Mar},
      date          = {2015-03-21},
      organization  = {50th Rencontres de Moriond, La Thuile
                       (Italy), 21 Mar 2015 - 28 Mar 2015},
      keywords     = {hadron: initial state (autogen) / higher-order (autogen) /
                      Bayesian (autogen) / perturbation theory (autogen) /
                      statistical (autogen) / performance (autogen) / rescaling
                      (autogen)},
      cin          = {T},
      cid          = {I:(DE-H253)T-20120731},
      pnm          = {611 - Fundamental Particles and Forces (POF3-611)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-611},
      experiment   = {EXP:(DE-MLZ)NOSPEC-20140101},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)8 / PUB:(DE-HGF)15},
      eprint       = {1505.08029},
      howpublished = {arXiv:1505.08029},
      archivePrefix = {arXiv},
      SLACcitation = {$\%\%CITATION$ = $arXiv:1505.08029;\%\%$},
      url          = {https://bib-pubdb1.desy.de/record/220626},
}