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000220626 005__ 20211110131117.0
000220626 0247_ $$2arXiv$$aarXiv:1505.08029
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000220626 0247_ $$2inspire$$ainspire:1373744
000220626 037__ $$aPUBDB-2015-02318
000220626 041__ $$aEnglish
000220626 0881_ $$aDESY-15-084; arXiv:1505.08029
000220626 088__ $$2DESY$$aDESY-15-084
000220626 088__ $$2arXiv$$aarXiv:1505.08029
000220626 1001_ $$0P:(DE-H253)PIP1023671$$aBagnaschi, Emanuele$$b0$$eCorresponding author
000220626 1112_ $$a50th Rencontres de Moriond$$cLa Thuile$$d2015-03-21 - 2015-03-28$$wItaly
000220626 245__ $$aEstimation of uncertainties from missing higher orders in perturbative calculations
000220626 260__ $$c2015
000220626 300__ $$a4
000220626 3367_ $$033$$2EndNote$$aConference Paper
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000220626 3367_ $$2BibTeX$$aINPROCEEDINGS
000220626 520__ $$aIn this proceeding we present the results of our recent study (hep-ph/1409.5036) of the statistical performances of two different approaches, Scale Variation (SV) and the Bayesian model of Cacciari and Houdeau (CH)(hep-ph/1105.5152) (which we also extend to observables with initial state hadrons), to the estimation of Missing Higher-Order Uncertainties (MHOUs)(hep-ph/1307.1843) in perturbation theory. The behavior of the models is determined by analyzing, on a wide set of observables, how the MHOU intervals they produce are successful in predicting the next orders. We observe that the Bayesian model behaves consistently, producing intervals at $68\%$ Degree of Belief (DoB) comparable with the scale variation intervals with a rescaling factor $r$ larger than $2$ and closer to $4$. Concerning SV, our analysis allows the derivation of a heuristic Confidence Level (CL) for the intervals. We find that assigning a CL of $68\%$ to the intervals obtained with the conventional choice of varying the scales within a factor of two with respect to the central scale could potentially lead to an underestimation of the uncertainties in the case of observables with initial state hadrons.
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000220626 650_7 $$2autogen$$ahigher-order
000220626 650_7 $$2autogen$$aBayesian
000220626 650_7 $$2autogen$$aperturbation theory
000220626 650_7 $$2autogen$$astatistical
000220626 650_7 $$2autogen$$aperformance
000220626 650_7 $$2autogen$$arescaling
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000220626 9141_ $$y2015
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