%0 Conference Paper
%A Bagnaschi, Emanuele
%T Estimation of uncertainties from missing higher orders in perturbative calculations
%N DESY-15-084
%M PUBDB-2015-02318
%M DESY-15-084
%M arXiv:1505.08029
%P 4
%D 2015
%X In this proceeding we present the results of our recent study (hep-ph/1409.5036) of the statistical performances of two different approaches, Scale Variation (SV) and the Bayesian model of Cacciari and Houdeau (CH)(hep-ph/1105.5152) (which we also extend to observables with initial state hadrons), to the estimation of Missing Higher-Order Uncertainties (MHOUs)(hep-ph/1307.1843) in perturbation theory. The behavior of the models is determined by analyzing, on a wide set of observables, how the MHOU intervals they produce are successful in predicting the next orders. We observe that the Bayesian model behaves consistently, producing intervals at 68% Degree of Belief (DoB) comparable with the scale variation intervals with a rescaling factor r larger than 2 and closer to 4. Concerning SV, our analysis allows the derivation of a heuristic Confidence Level (CL) for the intervals. We find that assigning a CL of 68% to the intervals obtained with the conventional choice of varying the scales within a factor of two with respect to the central scale could potentially lead to an underestimation of the uncertainties in the case of observables with initial state hadrons.
%B 50th Rencontres de Moriond
%C 21 Mar 2015 - 28 Mar 2015, La Thuile (Italy)
Y2 21 Mar 2015 - 28 Mar 2015
M2 La Thuile, Italy
%K hadron: initial state (autogen)
%K higher-order (autogen)
%K Bayesian (autogen)
%K perturbation theory (autogen)
%K statistical (autogen)
%K performance (autogen)
%K rescaling (autogen)
%F PUB:(DE-HGF)8 ; PUB:(DE-HGF)15
%9 Contribution to a conference proceedingsInternal Report
%U https://bib-pubdb1.desy.de/record/220626